Abstract: An integrated system-dynamics model of energy systems is employed to explore the transition process towards alternative fuel markets. The model takes into account the entire energy system including interactions among supply sectors, energy prices, infrastructure and fuel demand. The paper presents the model structure and describes the algorithm for the short-term and long-term simulation of energy markets. The integrated model is applied to the renewable-based energy system of Iceland as a case study to simulate the transition path towards alternative fuel market during the time horizon of 2015-2050. An optimistic transition scenario towards hydrogen and biofuels is investigated for the numerical results. The market simulation algorithm effectively exhibits the continual transition towards equilibrium as market prices dynamically adjust to changes in supply and demand. The application of the model has potential to provide important policy insights as it can simulate the impact of different policy instruments on both supply and demand sides.

Abstract: With a broader distribution of personal smart devices and with an increasing availability of advanced navigation tools, more drivers can have access to real time information regarding the traffic situation. Our research focuses on determining how using the real time information about a transportation system could influence the system itself. We developed an agent based model to simulate the effect of drivers using real time information to avoid traffic congestion. Experiments reveal that the system's performance is influenced by the number of participants that have access to real time information. We also discover that, in certain circumstances, the system performance when all participants have information is no different from, and perhaps even worse than, when no participant has access to information.

Abstract: In this work the framework for detectors layout optimization based on a multi-agent simulation is proposed. Its main intention is to provide a decision support team with a tool for automatic design of social threat detection systems for public crowded places. Containing a number of distributed detectors, such system performs detection and an identification of threat carriers. The generic model of detector used in the framework allows considering detection of various types of threats, e.g. infections, explosives, drugs, radiation. The underlying agent-based models provide data on social mobility which is used along with a probability based quality assessment model within the optimization process. The implemented multi-criteria optimization scheme is based on a genetic algorithm. For experimental study the framework has been applied in order to get the optimal detectors' layout in the Pulkovo airport.

Abstract: The paper presents an early-stage research which is aimed towards the development of comprehensive conceptual and technological framework for ensemble-based simulation of complex systems. The concept of multi-layer ensemble is presented as a background for further development of the framework to cover different kind of ensembles: ensemble of system’s state, data ensemble, and models ensemble. Formal description of a hybrid model is provided as a core concept for ensemble-based complex system simulation. The example of water level forecasting application is used to show selected ensemble classes covered by the proposed framework.